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    張寶通:如何區分西安城市的人口紅利

    作者:張寶通   來源:陜西發展觀察   日期:2019-05-31 14:43:08
    導讀:其實大城市病是感冒,是可以治好的,日本東京就是一個案例。

      本網訊:對大城市人口國家一直釆取嚴格控制的政策,把大城市病無限夸大了,好像大城市病是癌癥,是不可治愈的。其實大城市病是感冒,是可以治好的,日本東京就是一個案例。

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      東京人口比北京多,面積比北京小,人口密度比北京大,汽車擁有量比北京多,但是東京交通不擁堵,也沒有霧霾,東京是世界上效率最高的城市之一,一個重要原因是東京比北京地鐵發達。
     

      我1986年到日本訪問,當時日本地鐵有三層,站在任何一個地方5分鐘就會找到一個地鐵口,日本的部長上班都坐地鐵,又快又準時,開車又慢又煩心。
     

      現在據說已經地下六七層了,簡直就是一個地下立體城市。而我們的軌道交通建設控制很嚴,一度停建、停批一些城市的軌道交通建設,要求與城市經濟發展相適應,丟掉了“要致富先修路”的中國經驗。
     

      大城市病不但是可以治愈的,而且中國還需要發展大城市。中國是近14億人口的大國,而一半國土是青藏高原、沙漠戈壁、黃土高原,是不適合人居住的。
     

      耕地是中國最為稀缺的資源,國家實行了最嚴格的耕地保護政策,還為大城市面積畫了紅線。在這個問題上中國的國情和日本相像,而不是美國。
     

      因此,中國的城市化必須發展大城市,因為大城市是最節約土地的,而且是效率最高的。由于耕地極為稀缺,大城市發展必須“上天入地”。
     

      “上天”就是蓋高樓,向空中要土地,香港最典型;“入地”就是修地鐵,向地下要土地,東京最典型。中國最大的安全問題不是芯片,而是糧食安全,耕地占完了誰來養活中國,那個時候耕地大國美國就會卡住我們的脖子。
     

      由于大城市有聚集效應,效率高,收入也高,就成了人口凈流入的地方。我國目前的大城市不是多了,而是少了,發展大城市應當是中國城市發展的特色。
     

      國家發改委出臺了《關于培育發展現代化都市圈的指導意見》,除極少數超大城市外,城市落戶條件都要放開,這對西安城市的發展是一個機遇。
     

      西安原來是中國八大城市之一,當時的成都、鄭州還是中等城市。但成都、鄭州抓住了改革開放的機遇,成都合并了溫江地區,一夜之間由一個中等城市變成了特大城市,現在經濟總量幾乎是西安的2倍,鄭州是全國第一個放開農民工戶口的省會城市,經濟總量也超過了西安,因此國家先于西安把成都、鄭州定位為國家中心城市。
     

      但西安不僅是國家中心城市,是西北的首府,還是繼北京、上海之后國家第三個定位的國際化大都市,也是國家在內陸唯一定位的國際化大都市。
     

      西安要抓住國家推進西咸一體化的機遇,落實國務院按程序優化行政區劃調整的政策,盡快組建大西安,向超大城市方向發展。

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      有人說,陜西的人口比四川、河南少得多,作為省會城市西安的人口不可能追趕超越成都、鄭州。習總書記到陜西考察調研,讓我們抓住住“一帶一路”的歷史機遇,找準在“一帶一路”的戰略定位,引領新常態,追趕超越。
     

      陜西是“一帶一路”的核心區,西安是“一帶一路”核心區的“核”和亞歐大陸橋經濟帶的心臟,要建設引領“一帶一路”、亞歐合作交流的國際化大都市。
     

      上海地域雖然很小,但人口超越了經濟大省江蘇、浙江的省會南京、杭州,因為上海是全球城市、世界城市。西安的人口不能立足于省會和國家中心城市,而要引領“一帶一路”,服務亞歐合作交流,其吸引人口、服務地域要突破陜西局限,著眼“一帶一路”,成為亞歐合作交流的國際化大都市。這是周邊的成都、重慶、武漢、鄭州所不具備的。
     

      沿海開放看深圳,“一帶一路”看西安,深圳由一個漁村變成了現代化超大城市,經濟總量超過了廣州、香港、新加坡,難道西安不能在今后三十余年的新時代追趕超越成都、重慶、武漢、鄭州,重振漢唐雄風,再創昔日輝煌。(作者系陜西省城市經濟文化研究會會長、陜西發展觀察編委會副主任 張寶通)

    (責任編輯:劉云云)

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